Governance, sustainable development and international politics of a future ice-free Arctic

Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes: improved knowledge of the processes, feedbacks and impacts of an ice-free Arctic, both locally/regionally and globally, including advanced research on newly emerging aspects of the future regime change in the Arctic. enhanced observations and monitoring capabilities of Arctic changes including ocean, land, sea-ice and atmosphere processes and biodiversity in the Arctic, informing the key components covered by the topic, i.e. governance, sustainable development and international politics of an ice-free Arctic. knowledge-based recommendations for sustainable development (of ocean-based and blue economy activities), environmental conservation, climate change adaptation and resilience, better-informed planning of resources (with a focus on coastal communities and activities) and enabled evidence-based regional, European, and global decision–making on Arctic Ocean Governance; sustained European leadership in ocean–climate–biodiversity-cryosphere science; significant contributions made to global scientific assessments, such as the IPCC, IPBES, SWIPA (Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic) and WOA (World Ocean Assessments), as well as to the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021 – 2030) and Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences (2025-2034), Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement (CAOFA), the International Polar Year 2032-2033, UN SDGs 13 and 14, and the European polar science coordination efforts. Scope: Proposals should: better understand, project and reduce uncertainties linked to the impacts, timing and consequences of an ice-free Arctic. This includes the underlying systems (such as ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere) and processes, strengthening research on key or main drivers of internal variability and their interconnectedness to the climate system, under multi and cumulative and cascading impacts of anthropogenic activities (resource extraction, climate change, shipping and industrial activities, pollution, introduction of NIS, etc.), abrupt, irreversible change/tipping elements and thresholds, including their reversibility. In particular, understanding the nuances of the impacts of occasional daily ice-free conditions, versus frequent monthly ice-free conditions, versus ice-free conditions that occur for several months a year, is needed to assess the true impact of a new seasonal Arctic sea ice regime in a warming world, in particular in and for Europe. enhance regional models representing integrated key physical, biogeochemical, and biological processes, especially to capture processes in the changing sea-ice regimes (ecological and political) and the impacts of extremes, building on and further developing the existing IPCC class climate models and making use of new technologies for sustained monitoring of key climate indicators / shared Arctic variables and machine learning techniques for the advanced interpretation of these data. identify transformative pathways and key leverage points for sustainable mitigation and anticipatory adaptation approaches. This could include and are not limited to looking into aspects of: community resilience and health, particularly Indigenous populations, in adapting to cultural, political, economic and environmental changes, including addressing food security, health impacts, and preserving cultural practices; explore novel economic opportunities and challenges, evaluating the potential for shorter and new shipping routes and other economic opportunities, explore sustainable energy solutions for Arctic communities, including wind, solar, and geothermal energy potential, resource exploration, and sustainable economic development while ensuring environmental protection; explore elements of risk management and hazard mitigation preparing for increased coastal erosion, increased extreme weather events, and the impacts of thawing permafrost on inf…