Unlocking a safe operating space for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean

Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes: improved multidisciplinary scientific understanding of the functioning of the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic cryosphere and associated ecosystem dynamics, in the near term (∼2030), mid-term (2050–2060) and long-term (after ∼2060), including their mutual interaction with, impact on and vulnerability to, current and future changes in the other components of the regional and global climate systems; important contributions made to key ocean, cryosphere, climate and biodiversity monitoring indicators that support international, regional and global assessments. Fostered development of a regional approach to polar ocean, climate and biodiversity observations, monitoring and reporting; informed policies for environmental conservation and climate resilience and enabled evidence-based regional, European, and global decision–making on polar ocean governance; sustained European leadership in ocean–climate–biodiversity-cryosphere science; significant contributions made to global scientific assessments (e.g. IPCC, IPBES and WOA), as well as to the UN Decades of Action of Ocean (2021-2030) and Cryospheric (2025-2034) Sciences, the Antarctica InSync programme (2027 and 2030), the International Polar Year (2032-2033), UN SDGs 13 and 14, and the European polar science coordination efforts. Scope: Proposals should: resolve uncertainties, improve projections and quantifications of the future of the region, looking at changes in the near-, mid- and long-term (irreversible, abrupt and committed changes), their likelihood, timing, rate, amplitude, and impacts on the Earth’s System (decadal to millennial climate projections, global sea level, ocean circulation, global carbon budget); advance understanding of the complex interactions and feedbacks between the ocean, the atmosphere, sea ice, ice shelves, and land ice dynamics, considering multiple scales and processes simultaneously, with focus on the Antarctic continental shelves where conditions are or will change rapidly and on regions for bottom water formation; advance the knowledge of Southern Ocean dynamics and sea ice dynamics in the near-, mid- and long-term. Better understand the distribution, underlying mechanisms and impacts of changes in the Southern Ocean and sea ice to reduce uncertainties in projected future changes of large-scale ocean circulation and transport, including abrupt, irreversible change/tipping elements and thresholds, collapse of the overturning circulations, regional and global climate and weather systems. This should include extreme events and mid-latitude weather; fluxes between the ice sheet and the ocean; the future dynamics of oceanic carbon pools; explore the vulnerability of Southern Ocean ecosystems, including the impacts of climate change, pollution and other anthropogenic activities on marine biodiversity and ecosystem dynamics changes in the near (∼2030), mid (2050–2060) and long-term (after ∼2060). This includes improved control variables for the diversity of all life forms incorporating also the microbiome and functions (functional diversity), as well as the biocomplexity suitable for measuring biosphere integrity in different facets. Proposals should also contribute to the development or strengthening of long-term, continuous monitoring systems for Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, in synergy with existing observation infrastructures; develop mechanisms to distinguish human-induced environmental changes from natural ones and develop strategies to protect the fragile environment of the Southern Ocean from human activities and climate change, as well as comprehensively establish the efficacy of Southern Ocean conservation measures for preserving evolutionary potential and those properties that best anticipate change; further improve key ocean, cryosphere, climate and biodiversity monitoring indicators that support international, regio…