Strengthening evidence-based policies for the resilience of European agriculture and forestry and related supply chains against crises and systemic risks

Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes: societal and political actors have a better understanding of how European agriculture and forestry, as well as agri-food and forest-based supply chains, are exposed to and impacted by a combination of complex systemic risks and crises; EU, national, regional and local decision-makers have access to improved analytical capacity and recommendations on policy instruments and strategies for assessing, preventing and managing systemic risks and crises; the compounding, cascading and amplifying roles of climate change for different types of risks and crises and in constraining options for crisis response are better understood, facilitating their systematic integration into decision-making; the compounding, amplifying and/or mitigating role of trade for different types of risks and crises involving supply chain effects is better understood. Scope: The 2020 and 2025 Strategic Foresight Reports [1] put forward resilience as a compass for EU policies. Resilience is defined as the ability not only to withstand and cope with challenges but also to undergo transitions, in a sustainable, fair, and democratic manner. Adopting a transformative, proactive and forward-looking approach to resilience is needed for the EU to thrive in turbulent times, anticipate new challenges and create a safe space for citizens and businesses. Against this background, proposals should target several systemic risks and crises (e.g., sanitary, environmental, economic, geopolitical, biodiversity, demographic, technological) that are causing, or likely to cause, significant socio-economic impacts directly or indirectly affecting European agriculture or forestry, and agri-food or forest-based supply chains, considering potential compound, cascading and amplifier effects under climate change. The actions under this topic are relevant to the EU policies related to the EU Vision for Agriculture and Food, the EU Forest Strategy, the common agricultural policy, and the forthcoming European Climate Adaptation Plan. Proposals should: improve analytical capacity on: the exposure of the agricultural or forestry sectors and of agri-food or forest-based supply chains and their agents, including consumers, to (interacting) systemic risks and crises, including compound, cascading and amplifier effects related to climate change and trade disruptions; the assessment and measurement of the propagation of shocks and short-, medium- and long-term impacts (social, economic, environmental including biodiversity) of those (interacting) systemic risks and crises on the agricultural or forestry sectors and on agri-food or forest-based supply chains and their agents, at different scales (local to global) and considering the vulnerability of different groups (e.g. age, gender or other social factors). Proposals should take into account the specificities of different types of supply chains, e.g., in terms of length, organisation, critical dependencies, considering also the role of ecosystem services and, where relevant, intergenerational time scales; explore a range of effective socio-economic and technological (e.g., advanced digital technologies) options and identify leverage points to further develop integrated prevention, preparedness, management, adaptation and transformation strategies and pathways that encompass different temporal (short to long term) and spatial (global to local) scales to improve the resilience at each critical stage of the agri-food or forest-based supply chains; analyse those options with regard to societal and institutional preconditions, the costs and benefits, at different levels, of action versus non-action, as well as coherence, synergies and trade-offs with competitiveness, health and sustainability objectives. Proposals should either address Area A: Agriculture and agri-food supply chains, or Area B: Forestry and forest-based supply chains. The area (A or …